A short while before nightfall on Tuesday, the most powerful rocket in the world launched on a test flight from its Texas launch facility.
Expectations were high for a successful SpaceX Starship mission following two explosive failed attempts in January and March.
Starship consists of two components: the “Ship,” which is the upper part, resting on top of a booster known as Super Heavy. The total combined system stands just over 120 meters tall.
However, just minutes after separation from Super Heavy, it became apparent that the unmanned spacecraft was experiencing issues. It started to spin uncontrollably.
“We’ve essentially lost our attitude control with Starship,” a SpaceX commentator stated during a live broadcast of the test flight.
The company later confirmed what it termed a “rapid unscheduled disassembly.”
This outcome was a mix of positive and negative for Elon Musk’s team.
The spacecraft achieved its most significant progress to date, surpassing the successes of the prior two attempts, and effectively utilized a previously flown booster, marking a crucial step towards creating fully reusable rockets.
In the end, Starship’s ninth test flight turned into its third consecutive fiery failure.
SpaceX has a robust reliability record with its most successful rocket, the Falcon 9. However, having three unsuccessful missions months apart may cause some observers to question whether SpaceX’s Starship is faltering.
What went wrong during Tuesday’s flight?
The exact issues remain unclear. Test data will be made available eventually, which SpaceX will use to guide the solutions it implements before its next launch.
Tuesday’s test mission initially progressed better than those before it, as Dr. Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, informed the BBC.
He mentioned that the ship “successfully got all the way through its orbit insertion, meaning the rocket fired for the full duration that it was meant to go.”
However, the team was already facing issues at this stage, having lost contact with the booster, which instead plunged into the Gulf of Mexico rather than performing the anticipated controlled splashdown.
Shortly after, the spacecraft had to abandon its deployment of mock Starlink satellites because the payload door malfunctioned and needed to be closed.
For Dr. McDowell, the “big failure” was SpaceX’s inability to maintain Starship’s “attitude – its pointing direction – during the orbital coast.”
Even though this was Starship’s best progress so far, the spacecraft developed leaks, disintegrated in orbit, and spiraled upon re-entry.
‘Fail fast, learn fast’
SpaceX follows a principle of rapid iteration, viewing test failures as chances for learning instead of setbacks.
While this strategy has resulted in significant breakthroughs, consecutive failures bring up concerns regarding long-term reliability and safety.
Still, the company remains hopeful that its “fail fast, learn fast” methodology will eventually yield positive results, as it did when developing the Falcon series of reusable rockets.
Dr. Leah-Nani Alconcel, a spacecraft engineer and associate professor at the University of Birmingham, expressed that it is not evident the same will occur for Starship.
“Each Starship launch carries a significantly higher cost than Falcon launches did,” she shared with the BBC.
“Its main objective is to transport humans to Mars, which relies on the establishment of a market that is yet to exist, posing a greater financial risk.”
“The repeated expensive and destructive failures of Starship, along with the indifference to or celebration of these, do not convey that safety and reliability are the central focuses of its development.”
Dr. McDowell also anticipated “more failures.”
“There is a whole new generation of space technology on this rocket,” he added, “so it’s not surprising that they’re encountering issues.”
“I do believe they’ll manage to get it functioning eventually,” he remarked.
Has SpaceX set its sights too high?
Mr. Musk and his company have ambitious plans for the rocket system to eventually transport humans to Mars.
NASA aims to incorporate Starship into its Artemis program, which seeks to establish a long-term human presence on the Moon.
The first crewed mission is set for mid-2027, but time is running short, remarked journalist and author Dr. David Whitehouse.
Dr. McDowell predicted that it could take several more years for Starship to be prepared for a crewed lunar mission, which could become a “very embarrassing situation for NASA to manage.”
“In the space industry, we refer to ‘Elon Time.’ If he claims he will accomplish something in one year, mark your calendar for three years from now,” he added.
Is there reason for hope?
The commercial spaceflight sector has seen rapid growth, with private enterprises aiming to tap into space resources and develop new economies outside Earth.
With competitors like Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin and various Chinese initiatives making progress, does SpaceX remain the frontrunner?
“No other company is attempting anything on the scale of Starship,” stated Dr. McDowell.
“If they [SpaceX] manage to make it work – and they must make it work – that will solidify their standing as the leader in the industry.”
So, despite the failures in the last three test flights, is there still a reason to be hopeful?
“Perhaps not hope, but cautious confidence,” Dr. McDowell suggested.
All evidence suggests that SpaceX should be financially thriving. It serves as the foundation of the contemporary space era; the company’s Falcon rocket family shattered previous records by launching nearly 100 times in 2023, while its Starlink internet satellites account for around half of the roughly 10,000 operational satellites in orbit.
However, beneath these successes lies a different narrative: a lengthy saga of challenges, setbacks, and countless billions in funding. It wasn’t until 2023 that the company finally turned a profit when its Falcon and Starlink ventures started yielding returns. Now, as the first profits begin to emerge, SpaceX is edging closer to its ultimate aim: using its Earth-based operations to fund its Martian ambitions.
How Does SpaceX Fund Its Operations?
Private Funding
Despite SpaceX’s diligence, rockets are not inexpensive. The company depends heavily on investments and conducts funding rounds several times annually, which require considerable courage; each round typically raises hundreds of millions to billions. Given that developing rockets and spacecraft can take many years and is fraught with risk, relying on public trading isn’t a wise choice.
Consequently, a significant portion of SpaceX’s funding comes from private investors, including Alphabet, Fidelity Investments, and Elon Musk himself. By 2021, the company had secured over $6 billion in equity financing, and according to a Wall Street Journal report on SpaceX’s finances, the company raised $2 billion from issuing shares in 2022. Most of that money goes toward the development of Starlink and Starship.
Government Funding and Contracts
Yet, private investment alone has never sufficed; in fact, roughly half of the $1 billion that supported SpaceX during its initial ten years was sourced from government funding (according to a 2019 Space Angels report). Government contracts, particularly those from the U.S., are nearly essential for companies aspiring to enter the space industry. They are not only lucrative but also provide companies the opportunity to showcase their technology to attract additional clients.
For SpaceX, this approach proved highly effective; the funds were utilized for the Falcon rockets and Dragon spacecraft, which are now in service for NASA’s space probes, ISS missions, and a multitude of other tasks. SpaceX is receiving nearly $5 billion from the agency solely for astronaut transport (as reported by BBC). The company also has a contract with NASA to supply two modified Starships for the agency’s Artemis program, valued at around $4 billion.
However, it’s not just NASA that benefits from SpaceX’s offerings. Other nations and regions, such as Europe and South Korea, sometimes rely on Falcon services due to their lack of capable rockets. Nevertheless, the U.S. government remains SpaceX’s most lucrative client. In addition to NASA payloads, satellites developed by the U.S. Space Force, the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), and the Department of Defense (DoD) are frequently launched on a Falcon 9 or Heavy rocket.
SpaceX increases the charge for these classified missions due to additional infrastructure and security needs. Starlink has also demonstrated its military capabilities during several operations and is now contracted with the DoD to provide services to Ukrainian forces, who utilize it for drone operations and communications. Additionally, SpaceX’s Starshield, a Starlink-based satellite service tailored for governmental clients, secured its first DoD contract in late 2023.
Starlink Internet Services
While rockets may seem more exciting, the true financial future of SpaceX can be observed through Starlink. The idea is straightforward: a network of at least 12,000 satellites in low Earth orbit guarantees that every corner of the globe has access to high-speed internet. It caters to people in isolated areas as well as those on aircraft and ships; Starlink receivers are already utilized by a large number of cruise ships.
SpaceX is also starting to deploy Starlims aimed at direct-to-cell services and is developing compact receivers that can fit in a backpack. As of December 2023, Starlink boasts more than two million subscribers and has begun to reach profitability—but this still falls short of the company’s target of serving 20 million users by 2022.
Despite a slow start, SpaceX has ambitious aspirations for Starlink, particularly that it will become a major source of revenue for the company. Musk claims the launch market has its limitations, and in an unpredictable industry like space, success isn’t assured. Therefore, SpaceX is placing its confidence in Starlink, which it hopes could generate around $30 billion annually.
This approach seems sound; even with Starlink’s modest numbers, it has already earned more revenue than the launching of satellites did in 2023 (according to analysis from Payload). Now, SpaceX is on track to reach $15 billion in revenue for 2024, with a significant portion coming from Starlink. All this money will then fund the expensive missions to Mars.
Spacecraft and Rocket Sales
A majority of SpaceX’s launches involve sending up Starlink satellites or government payloads, but its rockets are also a preferred choice within the commercial sector. Communications firms like Intelsat, OneWeb, and ViaSat regularly rely on SpaceX. Even Amazon—created by Jeff Bezos, who founded SpaceX rival Blue Origin—had to concede and book some of its Kuiper internet satellites on a Falcon 9 after facing shareholder pressure.
However, small satellite companies are the most enthusiastic about SpaceX, taking full advantage of its Transporter rideshare missions. By loading a Falcon 9 with as many satellites as possible—the ninth Transporter mission carried 113 payloads—customers can share launch costs, and SpaceX reduces the price by a few tens of millions to maintain a competitive edge (as per Payload estimates).
It’s an excellent deal; reserving a spot for your 300-kilo payload on Rocket Lab’s small Electron rocket costs around $7.5 million, whereas with Transporter, it’s only $1.8 million. Admittedly, small rockets can position your payloads into precise orbits—Transporter releases all passengers simultaneously—but given the price difference, it’s an easy decision. Unsurprisingly, these trips are extremely popular, with 12 additional Transporter missions scheduled on the Falcon 9 through to the end of 2027.
Space Tourism and Commercial Human Spaceflight
While it isn’t as inexpensive as a trip to the beach, SpaceX is more than willing to take you wherever you wish in space—though trips to Mars may be delayed for a while. SpaceX’s initial foray into space tourism occurred with the 2021 Inspiration4 mission, which allowed four non-professional astronauts to orbit Earth for three days aboard a Dragon spacecraft for charitable purposes. The mission’s leader, billionaire Jared Isaacman, spent under $200 million for this experience.
Since then, the private enterprise Axiom has utilized SpaceX for three missions to the International Space Station (ISS), charging approximately $55 million per seat. This service presents an excellent opportunity for nations without independent access to space to send astronauts to the station. Countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Sweden (among others) have dispatched astronauts through Axiom, and upcoming flights include astronauts from Poland and Hungary.
With Inspiration4, Isaacman became keen on space travel. He subsequently booked two additional flights with Dragon for his privately funded Polaris program, the first of which will feature the inaugural all-private spacewalk (using yet-to-be-tested SpaceX suits). The third Polaris mission is set to take place aboard Starship, which has also received bookings for at least two private trips around the moon.
Starship, which has a pressurized payload bay larger than that of the ISS, is also being considered by NASA as a potential space station, which could also attract tourists. In a more ambitious vision, SpaceX hopes that Starship might ultimately function similarly to an airliner, transporting individuals across the globe in just 30 minutes. Though this may sound far-fetched, recent estimates indicate that once Starship is fully reusable and operationally optimized, the “economics… begin to look closer to those of an airline” (according to reports from Payload).